NFL Track Record
All-time results for NFL picks generated by the Value Finder.
Closing-line value compares the line we posted a pick at against where the market closed. Beating the close consistently is the clearest sign a model is finding real edge, because it does not depend on how a handful of games happened to land. Measured over 1144 graded picks.
Results
By Confidence
Every pick we publish already clears our confidence gate. This splits that population by the underlying matchup score, so you can see whether the number moves with results.
| Confidence | W–L | Win Rate | ROI | Beat Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75-100 | 16–28 | 36.4% | -31.9% | 46.5% |
| 60-74 | 10–21 | 32.3% | -37.3% | 41.4% |
| 48-59 | 570–553 | 50.8% | -5.5% | 36.3% |
By Stat
How it works
Every time the Value Finder runs, we snapshot every pick it surfaces — the player, stat, our projection, the sportsbook line, and the recommended direction. After the game, we grade each pick against the actual result.
ROI is calculated on a flat-bet basis: every pick is 1 unit. No parlays, no varying stake sizes. What you see above is the raw, unfiltered record.
Want the full breakdown?
Pro members get the complete pick history — every player, stat, line, and result — plus stat filters and per-pick detail.